Austin Real Estate Market Update May 07, 2026 | Daily Briefing

The Austin housing market in May 2026 is telling two completely opposite stories at the same time, and the cleanest way to see that split is to look at how Months of Inventory has shifted year over year across the metro's 30 tracked cities.

When we line up May 2025 against May 2026, exactly 15 cities have higher Months of Inventory than they did a year ago, and exactly 15 cities have lower Months of Inventory than they did a year ago. That is a perfect 50/50 split, and it is one of the most striking patterns in today's Austin real estate update. The metro-wide number looks calm on the surface, with active listings at 16,200, down just 0.44 percent from 16,271 last May, and Months of Inventory easing slightly from 5.80 to 5.66. But underneath that calm headline, half the metro is tightening and half is loosening, and that divergence has real consequences for buyers, sellers, investors, and agents.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for May 07, 2026.

Let's start with the half that is tightening. The biggest year-over-year improvements in supply, meaning the steepest drops in Months of Inventory, are happening in some of the metro's most established suburbs. Lago Vista has dropped from 11.00 months to 8.11 months, a 26.2 percent improvement. Dale has fallen from 11.00 to 7.70, a 30.0 percent drop. Manchaca has eased from 5.00 to 3.88, a 22.4 percent improvement. Leander has tightened from 5.92 to 4.73, down 20.1 percent. Round Rock has improved from 4.33 to 3.54, a 18.3 percent drop. Del Valle has fallen from 4.50 to 3.68, also down 18.3 percent. Cedar Park has tightened from 3.99 to 3.28, down 17.6 percent. Austin proper has improved from 6.06 to 5.00, down 17.5 percent. Marble Falls has eased from 11.00 to 9.50, down 13.6 percent. These are the markets where supply pressure is genuinely relaxing, where sellers have a little more confidence than they did last spring, and where the Austin housing forecast looks meaningfully brighter than it did twelve months ago.

Now flip to the other half. Wimberley has climbed from 6.08 months to 10.39 months, a 71.0 percent jump in supply. Smithville has gone from 10.80 to 14.57, up 34.9 percent. Driftwood has risen from 6.90 to 9.16, up 32.7 percent. Lockhart has climbed from 4.80 to 6.00, up 25.0 percent. Spicewood has gone from 11.00 to 13.26, up 20.5 percent. Dripping Springs has risen from 4.68 to 5.59, up 19.6 percent. Hutto has climbed from 3.55 to 4.18, up 17.8 percent. Manor has gone from 5.09 to 5.93, up 16.5 percent. Lakeway has eased upward from 5.84 to 6.42, up 9.9 percent. Taylor, Pflugerville, Liberty Hill, Burnet, Elgin, and San Marcos round out the other half of the list, with smaller but still meaningful inventory increases. These are the markets where buyers have gained leverage over the last year, where sellers face more competition, and where the Austin real estate forecast remains tilted in favor of patient buyers.

The split itself is the headline. In a market that often gets discussed as if it moves in a single direction, today's data shows that the Austin housing market is actually moving in two directions at once, and which direction matters depends entirely on which suburb you are watching.

Step back and the metro-wide context still matters. Pending listings are up 3.8 percent year over year at 5,122, which is a leading indicator that demand is improving across the broader market. New construction pendings account for 1,810 of that total, while resale accounts for 3,312. The Activity Index has climbed from 23.3 percent in May 2025 to 24.0 percent in May 2026, with new construction running at 32.53 percent and resale at 21.02 percent. Builders are still moving product faster than the resale market, and that gap has been a consistent theme in the Austin real estate forecast.

Sales volume is also encouraging. May closed 3,185 properties, up 2.0 percent year over year, and cumulative sales from January through May reached 12,709, which is 3.5 percent above last year and 15.8 percent above the long-term average. Even with a market that is split 50/50 on inventory, the actual transaction volume is running ahead of historical norms.

Pricing tells its own story. The median sold price came in at $450,950 for May, which is 1.8 percent above May 2025 and the highest monthly median we have seen since last summer. The average sold price climbed to $613,514, up 5.2 percent year over year. The 36-month price comparison is at negative 2.18 percent, the smallest gap we have seen in over a year. The market remains 18.0 percent below the May 2022 peak of $550,000, and based on the 25-year compound appreciation rate of 4.793 percent, it would take approximately 53 months, or until September 2030, to climb back to that prior high.

For buyers, the 50/50 split is the most important takeaway in today's Austin market update. If you are shopping in a suburb where Months of Inventory has dropped year over year, like Cedar Park, Round Rock, Leander, or Lago Vista, you should expect more competition and less negotiating room than you would have had last spring. If you are shopping in a suburb where Months of Inventory has risen year over year, like Wimberley, Smithville, Driftwood, or Hutto, you have meaningfully more leverage than buyers had a year ago, and you should not hesitate to negotiate. The 49.3 percent metro-wide price drop rate confirms that sellers across the board are already adjusting expectations.

For sellers, the same logic applies in reverse. Sellers in tightening cities can price with more confidence than they could last May. Sellers in loosening cities need to be sharper on pricing from day one, because the buyer pool has more options and is prepared to wait.

For investors, the absorption rate of 20.44 percent remains well below the historical average of 31.40 percent, but the Market Flow Score of 4.62 is showing signs of improvement after sitting near multi-year lows last year. The 50/50 split also creates targeted opportunities, since some submarkets are clearly recovering faster than others, and that uneven recovery is where investors with local knowledge can find an edge.

For real estate agents, today's data is a reminder that broad market commentary does not serve clients well. With half the metro tightening and half loosening, the conversation has to be city-specific and even zip-code-specific. Knowing whether your client's target suburb falls into the 15 tightening cities or the 15 loosening cities is the difference between accurate guidance and missed expectations.

Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing at teamprice.com/austin-daily-real-estate-briefing for the complete archive of daily market data.